Spotting Assumptions

Why This Matters

Assumptions are the invisible foundations of every argument. When someone says "We should invest in this stock because the company is growing," they are assuming that past growth predicts future growth, that the stock price reflects company value, and that growth means good returns. These assumptions may be true—or they may not. The best thinkers learn to spot these hidden premises and question them.

Key Principles

• 1.
  Question the "obvious"

  The most dangerous assumptions are the ones so widely accepted that nobody thinks to question them. "You need a university degree to succeed" was obvious for decades—until it wasn't.

• 2.
  Ask "what would have to be true?"

  For any conclusion, work backwards. What conditions must exist for this to be correct? This reveals the hidden assumptions supporting the argument.

• 3.
  Steel-man opposing views

  Instead of attacking the weakest version of an argument (straw-manning), try to construct the strongest possible case for the opposing view. This forces you to understand the assumptions on both sides.

• 4.
  Watch for unstated "shoulds"

  Many arguments smuggle in value judgments as if they were facts. "Businesses should maximise shareholder value" is not a law of nature—it is an assumption about what matters.

• 5.
  Challenge your own assumptions regularly

  We all have blind spots. Make it a habit to ask yourself: "What am I assuming here? What if I'm wrong?" This is uncomfortable but essential for growth.

Books to Explore

• • Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman — How mental shortcuts lead to flawed assumptions
• • The Scout Mindset by Julia Galef — Why seeking truth beats defending beliefs
• • Being Wrong by Kathryn Schulz — The surprising value of making mistakes